Shippers are moving more freight to rail as fuel costs and tight trucking capacities push road rates, though analysts question how long the surge can last.

Domestic intermodal volumes in the United States have climbed to all-time highs, with year-over-year-growth estimated at 8 to 9% according to FreightWaves reports published October 1st. A separate industry white paper published in affiliation with Ryder, reinforced the trend, indicating that intermodal is outperforming truckload freight, suggesting  high diesel prices and persistent rigidity in the truckload market are pushing  shippers toward rail for long-haul freight.

C.H. Robinson's October freight market update describes the same trend. It states that domestic intermodal volumes stayed well above historical averages through September, with strong traffic in both August and September. According to the report, early-year growth was driven mainly by cost savings as diesel prices jumped, but recent demand increasingly reflects tighter trucking conditions and the need for dependable long-haul capacity. It calls intermodal "a strategic capacity solution rather than simply a lower-cost alternative."

On the road side, FreightWaves notes that the overall truckload tender rejection rate is near 14%, above August levels. Rejections have not eased despite the fourth quarter typically being a softer period. Flatbed and refrigerated rejections are edging higher, while dry van shows a modest seasonal dip.

Spot rates for dry van, flatbed and refrigerated freight are rising, largely because of diesel costs, FreightWaves reported. Per the FreightWaves white paper, diesel prices have hit record highs, raising operating costs and pushing freight rates up across multiple modes.

C.H. Robinson's truckload update also highlighted refrigerated spot rates, including the point that fuel reached a record $3.60 per mile in September, surpassing the February 2022 high. Linehaul-only refrigerated rates remain well below the 2022 peak, meaning fuel accounts for a large share of the increase. The company forecasts 2026 spot cost per mile up about 30% year over year for dry van, 31% for refrigerated and 28% for flatbed, with increases of roughly 10% to 11% expected in 2027. It also reported diesel above $8 per gallon in parts of the Pacific Northwest US.

According to C.H. Robinson, truckload rates rose sharply through 2026 while intermodal pricing moved more gradually, widening intermodal's savings. They also noted that intermodal fuel surcharges are percentage-based and tied to linehaul pricing, while truckload surcharges are typically per-mile, a difference that helps preserve intermodal's cost advantage when diesel costs stay elevated.

The rapid shift is creating pressure points. C.H. Robinson cites that Union Pacific is prioritizing committed contract freight and limiting new long-term commitments, with capacity tightest in California, Texas, Salt Lake City and Chicago. In September, Northeast truckload carriers became more selective and moved freight onto intermodal, especially on lanes of 550 to 1,500 miles, which led to chassis shortages and longer transit times in East Coast markets. Equipment pressure is greatest in New York/New Jersey, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Toledo, Chicago, Atlanta, Memphis and Charlotte.

Rail service itself remains strong, per the C.H. Robinson report. Train speed, locomotive utilization, held-train frequency and network fluidity are all favorable by historical standards, and the main challenge is equipment positioning, with localized chassis and container shortages causing isolated delays.

For shippers, the picture heading into 2027 is one of higher costs. C.H. Robinson expects intermodal contract pricing to be steady to higher, with West Coast origins rising fastest and central and eastern markets seeing moderate increases. Upward pressure is already emerging in the markets where intermodal use is highest.

The FreightWaves white paper described broader freight demand as steady but fragile, noting that consumer spending has been resilient so far, but that rising fuel costs and weaker sentiment could place added strain on freight volumes in the coming months.

For the global shipping market, the question is whether these pressures remain a largely domestic U.S. freight issue or begin to influence international commodity flows, port activity, and total delivered costs. As shippers reassess routing options and seek greater cost efficiency, shifts in domestic freight patterns could have downstream effects on port actively, commodity flows, and demand for ocean transportation.  These trends reinforce the importance of efficiency, reliability, and cost competitiveness across global shipping.

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